ADP Analysis for Rookies in 2010 – Michael Rathburn (Twitter: Cooler_Guy)

Finding sleepers especially impact rookies is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is a list of the top eligible pitchers for the AL/NL ROY in 2010 along with a 2010 projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their ADP or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

Stephen Strasburg SP – Washington Nationals
ADP – 282 Earliest – 141 Drafted 49%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #2

Opening Day Assignment – #1 SP in AA

Analysis: The big question on Strasburg will be are the Nationals going to rush him to the bigs in 2010 or will they do what TB and BAL did with David Price and Brian Matusz. I don’t see any reason to rush Stras this year. I would let him pitch half the year at AA and half the year at AAA with a 100-120 innings limit.

Right now, I would not draft him for any league format this year, but keep an eye on S/T. If the Nats get crazy and put him in the rotation he definitely warrants a look in that 275-300 range.

Projection: Possible September callup.

Neftali Feliz P – Texas Rangers
ADP – 170 Earliest – 113 Drafted 100%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking – #3

Opening Day Assignment – RP Stopper out of the Pen with an outside shot at the #5 SP slot

Analysis: The Rangers have a “Joba Rules” situation on their hands here, but I don’t think they will handle it the way the Yankees did. With an ADP of 170 (14th round) not a good value. Not when Zambrano, Price, Danks are all around the same ADP even if Feliz somehow landed the 5th SP slot.

Considering the Rangers have other SP options they can go with, the biggest need to fill with Feliz will be the 7th / 8th inning stopper role in which he was dominate last year. Feliz is a guy you want to target around that 250-275 range when the top tier holds pitchers are going.

Projection: 8 wins, 120 K’s / 100 IP, 25 holds, 2.50 ERA

Brian Matusz SP – Baltimore Orioles
ADP – 322 Earliest – 192 Drafted 13%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #7

Opening Day Assignment – #3 SP in BAL

Analysis: The #4 pick in the 2008 Draft was moved along slowly in 2009 to much criticism, but in the end it looked like the smart move. Matusz was making hitters look silly in Advanced A, then moved to AA and was 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA.

Instead of hitting AAA for the rest of the season, he jumped up to the bigs and held his own going 5-2. The BABIP of .343 is very high, so I would expect that number to come down over the 2010 season.

The impressive part of 2009 also for Matusz was 160 innings pitched. They won’t need to baby him and he should get 30-35 starts. Rick Porcello was a H/S pitcher who made the jump from A level and held his own. Matusz is a polished college pitcher with Ace stuff. The only drawback is pitching in the AL East vs. Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays can hurt your numbers.

Matusz WILL be the Orioles best pitcher by the end of the season. As the season approaches, I don’t see his ADP staying at 322; it should come down a lot. I would reach on Matusz as I value him in the 220-240 range ADP.

Projection: 175 IP / 14 Wins / 150 K’s / 4.35 ERA / 1.45 WHIP

Madison Bumgarner SP – San Francisco Giants
ADP – 324 Earliest – 213 Drafted 13.1%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #14

Opening Day Assignment – #1 SP in AAA / #5 SP in SF

Analysis: Bumgarner has blown through the minors since being drafted in 2008. A nice projectable lefty with front of the rotation stuff, Bumgarner looks to be a solid SP for years to come. But there are concerns about his secondary pitches and velocity. I can see him splitting time between the Giants and AAA in 2010. The 5th spot in the Giants rotation can be a nice fantasy play in NL only leagues and the ADP is in line.
25 year old Kevin Pucetas is also looming in that 5th slot, so Bumgarner could start the season at AAA and then be brought up as a spot starter.

Projection: 15 starts / 80 IP / 60 K’s / 5 Wins / 4.50 ERA / 1.40 WHIP

Wade Davis SP Tampa Bay Rays
ADP – 312 Earliest – 185 Drafted 21.7%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #17
Opening Day Assignment – #5 SP in TB

Analysis: Davis has been a guy whose development path you would love to see more of. 1 year at a time, moving up a level and getting a solid workload in at each stop. Last year, the #5 slot was claimed by Jeff Niemann and that worked out great for the Rays. I can see a similar year for Davis in 2010. Davis’s ADP is a tad high for my liking especially with Matusz going around the same time. Still worthy of a back end of the rotation guy in AL only leagues.

Projection: 150 IP/12 W/4.35 ERA/130 K’s/ 1.38 WHIP

Aroldis Chapman P – Cincinnati Reds
ADP – 288 Earliest – 185 – Drafted 56%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #19

Opening Day Assignment – #1 SP in AA

Analysis: The Reds have a slew of arms in the back end of the rotation so putting Chapman there would be a mistake in 2010. His impact will most likely be from the pen in the 2nd half of 2010; while the K’s and Holds will be nice it is not enough to warrant a 24th round pick. Francisco Liriano and Homer Bailey have similar ADP’s with guaranteed rotation spots / upside at the same price and would be better options.

Projection: 4 wins, 90 K’s / 75 IP, 15 holds, 3.00 ERA

Jhoulys Chacin SP Colorado Rockies
ADP – N/R
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #20

Opening Day Assignment #1 SP – AAA
Analysis:Chacin burst on the scene in 2008 with an 18-3 record in the minors between A and Hi A in 180 innings. Already showing he can be a workhorse and decent size at 6-3 200, he will find a home in the Rockies rotation soon enough.

There is a bit of a roadblock in the starting rotation,but its not like a Red Sox situation for Chacin so they might go back to putting him in the pen as a long reliever. I can see him being at AAA as a starter, and when a need for an arm comes, he will get the call. He is currently going undrafted in Mock Drafts which is surprising considering he is a top 25 prospect on most lists and not that far away. He is worth a flyer in NL only leagues around the 250th pick range.

Projection:100 IP at AAA / 80 IP in COL (split between the pen and starting rotation).

Dan Hudson SP Chicago White Sox
ADP – N/R
Opening Day Assignment #5 SP in CHI
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #26

Analysis: A former 5th round pick from the 2008 draft, Hudson made more stops than anyone in 2009. He started in A, went to High A, then AA, AAA, and finally the Show in Chicago. The White Sox farm system isn’t bad in the top 5, but Hudson is the only real arm they have right now. His roadblock is Freddy Garcia, so I think he wins the #5 SP job. The one thing about Hudson is his FB% is very high and you have to worry about that in US Cellular bandbox. I’m very surprised that Hudson has not popped up on the MDC scene which I was excited to plug him here. He is worthy of a late round pick in AL only leagues around the 225th pick.

Projection: 110 IP/8 W/90 K’s/4.80 ERA/1.45 WHIP

Drew Storen RP – Washington Nationals
ADP – 332 Earliest – 292 Drafted 3.3%

Opening Day Assignment – Closer in AAA

Analysis: The Nats signed Matt Capps for a couple reasons. #1 was the price tag was affordable and #2 so were the terms. A 1 yr deal makes Storen the closer in waiting for 2011. Storen should have an impact on the bullpen in the 2nd half of 2010 making him not draftable right now.

Keep an eye on S/T; if he does happen to make the big league club – you have to take him in that 330 range because he is a closer in waiting.

Projection: 25 K’s / 25 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8-10 HLD, 2-3 SV

Michael Bowden P – Boston Red Sox
ADP – 230 (AL Only) Drafted 100%

Opening Day Assignment – #2 SP in AAA

Analysis: Coming off a monster 2008, there was talk that Bowden had passed Clay Buchholz as the Red Sox #1 pitching prospect. There was also heavy rumors about Bowden going to Arizona for Miguel Montero which the Red Sox balked at. Try making that deal now – no chance.

The alarming stat on Bowden in 2009 was the K/BB ratio drop. He had 4.50 K/BB ratio in 2008; but only 1.87 in 2009. He also got lit up in his short stint in Boston. I still think Bowden has a shot to be a #4/#5 SP in the Majors, but probably not with the Red Sox. I don’t see any value in drafting Bowden in 2010.

Projection: Spot start callup and September callup if he isn’t dealt by the trading deadline.

Junichi Tazawa P – Boston Red Sox
ADP – 333 Earliest – 324 Drafted 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment – #1 SP in AAA

Analysis: Tazawa will see time in Boston this year, but only as a spot starter / long reliever when they are in a jam. He should pick up 5-6 wins, but the ERA and lack of K’s push him down.

Chris Tillman, Derek Holland, or Dan Hudson are better plays with similar ADP’s for AL only leagues.

Projection: 5 wins, 50 K’s / 75 IP, 4.75 ERA

Carlos Carrasco P – Cleveland Indians
ADP – 231 (AL Only) Drafted – 83%

Opening Day Assignment – #2 SP in AAA; with an outside shot at the #5 spot in rotation.

Analysis: Carrasco was part of the deal that sent to Cliff Lee to Philadelphia. He was a top pitching prospect in the Phillies organization and should help bolster what was a weak pitching minor league system in the Indians. The issue with Carrasco is that much like Michael Bowden, he was lit up during his short stint in the majors last year. The numbers at AAA were Jekyll and Hyde. He was terrible in Philly, but great in Cleveland.

The jury is still out on Carrasco and a full season at AAA would do him wonders. If he ends up in the 5th spot, it could be another Homer Bailey situation all over again. His competition for the 5th spot will be Jake Westbrook and Jeremy Sowers. Westbrook is coming off injury and Sowers is another soft tosser (Jaime Moyer v.2). I would only recommend him in deeper AL only league formats and very late in drafts. There are other pitchers worthy of drafting in that area – Wakefield, Duchscherer, Hochevar.

Projection: 50 IP/3 W/40 K’s/5.00 ERA/1.50 WHIP

You can also read my top rookie hiters rankings over at http://www.mlbfantasyprospects.com